davijordan wrote:Microsoft has to extend the life of xp or give vista away to be able to compete now.
Not really, they simply continue to do what they're doing, because Vista comes on the vast, vast majority of new PCs these days, so everybody will get it when the hard drive in their XP machines finally die, or some other component fails.
Microsoft don't need to make anything of particularly good quality to be able to compete, because they've got such an enormously strong monopoly lock on both the desktop market, and also on the general population's mind.
For example, where I live, and in large parts of Europe, a thing as simple as a translation-style dictionary is extremely critical for a student, and there is no such thing for GNU/Linux. And Wine is never an option, because you're never assured that something is gonna work. So that keeps a great bunch of people locked to Windows. And also the classic one... games! The Sims 2, World of Warcraft, all the Steam-based games etc. etc. that's a whole can of worms by itself.
davijordan wrote:I think the tide has turned for linux to be the main desktop.
I think you're getting a little too overconfident. Never underestimate
familiarity, it's ingrained in our human mindset. In most aspects of life we tend to favor things that seem familiar to us, the same is true for computers. Your average computer user, would rather have to deal with spyware and virus problems than to learn a new word processor, a new file manager etc. etc. for them that's just easier. Because when their Windows takes a dump, then they just call the local computer-knowledgeable guy to fix it, and then they go back to doing what they were doing before. The slightest inconvenience with something like GNU/Linux, is immediately noticed. People are so used to what you and I see as problems with Windows, that they think that that is just how computers are and ignore it, so when they try to use something different, they may see a different problem (Like a specific application not working, and having to use another one) and immediately see it as an actual problem and go "Well, Windows does this fine, this Lajnix thing does not work for me".
Take a look at this:
http://www.informationweek.com/blog/mai ... _gets.html
Windows is still king of the roost as far as desktop OSes go. It's what people know and are comfortable with -- even if most of their existing documents can be opened and used on Linux, there are still many people who simply prefer to stick with what they know, even if it means (and in some cases especially if it means) dealing with familiar hassles.
I've seen parallels to this sort of thing in my own experience. One friend was suffering from the usual trauma of a spyware-infested computer. I mentioned a couple of Linux distributions, and his response was on the order of "It sounds nice, but I don't want to have to learn everything all over again." It's a case of the devil you know vs. the devil you don't know, and if anything went wrong at least he could always throw in his restore disc and start over.
(Emphasis is mine.)
davijordan wrote:Too many people know how to use linux and realize they do not need Microsoft MSwindows or Apple osx.
Dude, most people don't even know what exactly Windows is, they simple know it's "something related to their computer". And acually most people do believe they need it, because they don't know what it is, and that there actually exists other things. I have actually come across quite a number of people who don't believe a computer can even run without Windows, because they believe say a driver (This is the slightly smarter folks) is for
"the computer" and not Windows specifically.
davijordan wrote:What is going on in Russia is a prime example of that.
Not really, because what do you think they were using before? This thing in Russia is simply a case of people finally getting
REALLY seriously bitten in the nuts, by their use of Windows (Lawsuits, punishment etc. etc. all sorts of non-technical problems), and then starts using their brain. Young people (I am 19½ years old, it's pretty much people around my age I am referring to) who take drugs like cocaine, knowing that it's dangerous, often don't really care, because they think
"It'll never happen to me!", or
"But this is so awesome!", or when you try to say that it can severely shorten their life they go
"Man, I want to live now, not in 60 years!", then when they having the serious problems they were warned up their ass about, if they have a slight amount of brain left, then they think
"OK, this was not such a good idea! Damn I should have taken those warnings! I'm gonna go tell other people that my parents' and school teachers' warnings were right!", and then the whole circle restarts with people saying
"It'll never happen to me!", or
"But this is so awesome!" ...
The Russian guy I quoted in my above reply, is in this analogy one of the former drug-addicts who tries to educate people, but only with some rare success. My point is that the only time people actually want a change, is when they have problems that they actually do not like. People don't really care about virus-, spyware-, reliability- and stability problems, because they just get a local guy to fix it, pay somebody to fix it, or (If they're wealthy) simply buy a brand new machine (Yes, even though the hardware is perfectly working, but Windows screwed up! Because these people are so non-knowledgeable that they think Windows is an actual part of
"the computer"). The only time people care about security is when they loose something of value to them, such as personal information getting intercepted by a trojan-horse, or having their bank account ass-raped.
davijordan wrote:I also think asus will have to stay with linux to be competitive with all the clones of the eee coming out. Xp even if it does out sell linux will be short lived.
I will definitely only believe that
when/if I see it.
