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Us econmy in dire straits ?

Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2007 5:00 pm
by allix
I found this opinion article , make of it what you want.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... 36,00.html

Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2007 1:50 pm
by Vogateer
Just a bunch of talk as far as I can see. Maybe it's just me, but I like to see some sort of numbers to back up what someone's saying, as opposed to pointing out silly things like Giselle Bundchen wanting to get paid in Euros. Of course she does, the Euro is worth more now, it doesn't exactly speak volumes about the U.S. economy, though.

From what I've read it seems that nobody really knows what causes currency exchange rate fluctuations, though we have known that China pegging their currency to the U.S. currency has caused issues for a long time.

It seems like the Fed is cutting interest rates specifically for sub-prime lenders, who were very simply making stupid loans, and they shouldn't be bailed out, they should suffer the consequences of their very bad decisions. From the numbers I've seen, the U.S. economy is still showing growth, despite our currency exchange rates being so bad and sub-prime lending companies paying for stupid mistakes.

Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2007 3:13 pm
by snarkout
Yeah, but if we let lenders tip over because they have so many bad debts, WTF are we going to do???:roll:

I totally agree - the kind of practices and tactics lenders have been using over the past several years are bordering on scumbagesque. I don't think the economy itself is in any worse shape than it has been since Regan did his thing, and is in much better shape than after the dotcom bust, but I do think that we are painting ourselves into a corner rapidly by offshoring jobs and by selling all manufacturing jobs to mexico and china. Add to that the absurd downward trend in schools, and yeah, the future looks pretty shitty.

Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:42 pm
by allix
People not affording to pay back loans is that not a sure sign that the country is in recession or worse? In many cases without a loan, presuming tougher credit history is going to be in effect very soon ,aren't a lot more people going to find them self without a home? renting maybe a short term solution for those people, but its not really sustainable.

Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2007 11:05 pm
by snarkout
No, it's a sign that lenders thought that it was good business to lend money to people who could not repay. It turns out, shockingly, that they were wrong. It says noting at all about the economy.

Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 2:39 pm
by Vogateer
Allix, perhaps you haven't read details on the lending situation. The lenders in trouble are the sub-prime lenders, which are the businesses lending to people with bad credit, so in layman's terms, they were loaning money to people who had a history of not paying back loans and bills.

So this has nothing to do with people with normally good credit suffering from a bad economy to the point that they can't pay back their loan, this has to do with lenders giving money to people who have a habit of not paying things back, then losing money on those bad loans and suffering the consequences.

Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 3:33 pm
by davijordan
Lending money always has some amount of risk. After the energy industry went belly up years ago down here, everyone was hurt. Even the well-to-do were caught in a crunch. Even good debtors had problems paying their loans. While working for a finance company I also saw people come in and get loans. The first time you called them when they missed a payment, they mysteriously did not speak english anymore. You can draw your own conclusion.
Where I live there are a lot of houses up for sale. More and more are from bankruptcy. Fortunately my house is paid for. Eventually, I may have to move somewhere else to find a real job, but I will try to stay patient a while longer.

Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 3:57 pm
by Vogateer
Sorry to hear your town isn't doing that well, davijordan.

I remember working at a bank and thinking that it was frightening how many people were able to get loans from sub-prime lending. The bank was boring, but I did learn something about the way financial institutions work, and it was mildly entertaining to see people who had a detailed credit history of never paying a bill in their lives getting mad at the bank for not giving them a loan.

I know my rural hometown isn't doing that well economically, but that's because people aren't moving there due to a lack of high paying jobs. It was an old coal mining town, but the coal mine closed decades ago. There just aren't any young families there anymore. On the other hand, I'm living in an urban area that's doing very well. This has been the trend for quite a while, though. I simply haven't seen any economic impact of sub-prime lending here, just trends that were already in place.

Maybe the U.S. economy isn't doing fantastically well, but it certainly isn't in dire straits from any of the numbers I've seen, and I appreciate journalism that doesn't try to focus on obviously unrelated silliness and equivocations. Honestly, saying that Giselle Bundchen is a trendsetter in the context of a financial article? A trendsetter in fashion, sure, I'd buy that; but a trendsetter for financial markets? That's ridiculous.

Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 10:00 pm
by shopRatt
From what I see the economy is not doing well at all right now. I see it in my neighborhood as well as most of you. Here in Michigan the fact that we could never diversify away from automobile manufacturing has hurt us pretty bad. Like davijordan, I also see many houses in foreclosure (just about one or two on every block) you can tell the ones that are from the stickers on the windows. Business owners and banks are hiring people to watch some of the vacant buildings to keep people from breaking in to steal the copper wiring and scrap metal from the insides.

You would think our lawmakers are working overtime to settle this issue, but this is the only thing that is getting done in November in Michigan....

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar ... /711060331

In short its an article on how Michigan lawmakers are taking an 18 day vacation that is for Thanksgiving/hunting season. Oh and by the way only 9 of the 148 have hunting licenses :roll: The budget is pretty bad around here but they don't seem to think so. Maybe its no so bad after all.

Also, as far as I am concerned lending institutions are getting what they deserve. For the past 10-15 years people with very marginal credit were given loans so that the banks could get revenue in the interest payments. Arm loans were handed out to many looking to lower their payment and now many are defaulting. Credit card companies still comb college campuses looking for broke college kids to sign on the dotted line. (People with no credit history) I could go on and on but why bother. :?:

Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 10:42 pm
by Vogateer
I can't say I'm seeing anyone hurting from the economy here. It seems like Oklahoma is finally getting out of the slump we had since the late 70's when the oil business went sour. Businesses are popping up left and right in Norman and Moore near Oklahoma City, the downtown Oklahoma City area has been revitalized, and there seems to be a lot of construction generally, with housing developments near my neighborhood seemingly bringing up a new house every week.

I can see why Michigan would be hurting. Domestic car manufacturers have been in trouble for a long time. There's a lot to it, but GM and Ford are paying wages that are uncompetitive with foreign manufacturers, and I doubt they can effectively compete as long as that's the case. I think the unions may have to realize that and give up a bit of ground, since foreign manufacturers are building a lot of cars here in America, and since they don't employ union labor, they're keeping their costs down below what GM and Ford can manage.

I can't complain about companies giving me a credit card in college when I didn't have credit. I came out of college with an A credit rating partly because I had such a good history with revolving credit.

It seems we're all in agreement about the sub-prime lenders getting their just desserts for bad loans. The thing that makes me mad is that they seem to be cutting interest rates specifically for one market, when they deserve no help whatsoever.

Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 12:54 am
by davijordan
Vogateer wrote:Sorry to hear your town isn't doing that well, davijordan.

I remember working at a bank and thinking that it was frightening how many people were able to get loans from sub-prime lending. The bank was boring, but I did learn something about the way financial institutions work, and it was mildly entertaining to see people who had a detailed credit history of never paying a bill in their lives getting mad at the bank for not giving them a loan.

I know my rural hometown isn't doing that well economically, but that's because people aren't moving there due to a lack of high paying jobs. It was an old coal mining town, but the coal mine closed decades ago. There just aren't any young families there anymore. On the other hand, I'm living in an urban area that's doing very well. This has been the trend for quite a while, though. I simply haven't seen any economic impact of sub-prime lending here, just trends that were already in place.

Maybe the U.S. economy isn't doing fantastically well, but it certainly isn't in dire straits from any of the numbers I've seen, and I appreciate journalism that doesn't try to focus on obviously unrelated silliness and equivocations. Honestly, saying that Giselle Bundchen is a trendsetter in the context of a financial article? A trendsetter in fashion, sure, I'd buy that; but a trendsetter for financial markets? That's ridiculous.
-----
Thanx for the kind words...

Even though the Nasa area is retooling, there is opportunity here. My former employer has had me screwed over when I apply for jobs. My boss's boss who was classy and honest, left right after I was terminated. I think he saw what was going on and left while he could. The management that was left over would be excellent sco/microsoft management material. In fact, my former boss was one of those excellent Ex-Enron employees. If I told you what else they did to me you would not believe it. I wish the feds would introduce my former employer to the Rico act. Not so long ago we used to tar and feather carpet baggers, It may be time to start doing it again.

My brother still works there in another department, but he is counting the days to retirement. Everyone is quiting his area because of their boss, so at least he has some job security.

There is a season turn, turn, turn. Hopefully, I will be back on top again soon. After some education, I may change careers for the third time in almost forty years. But, I will always dabble with 'puters. Thank god my family is grown....

Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 5:29 am
by Wally Balljacker
The economy might be booming for some people, i.e, the people who essentially run society, the ruling class, but for the majority, it's been getting worse for the past 25 years. Wages are going down, hours are going up, and the rich are getting richer, while the poor are getting poorer. I can speak from experience.

Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 8:29 am
by Vogateer
I try to avoid language that suggests we're in competition with the rich, since it seems to suggest that the economy is like a pizza, and if the rich get too much you're left eating the box, since that's so obviously not the case. I really don't care if the rich get richer, but I do care if the poor honestly get poorer.

Obviously big businesses are using patents and the outrageous costs of the legal system to hinder competition, which is a serious problem. Healthcare prices are are obviously hurting wages. I don't know about everyone else here, but my healthcare plan costs enough to make up very large percentage of what I make. If I had even half of that money going to my paycheck, it would make a sizable difference in how much I can save.

There are obviously some troubling signs in the economy, though it seems like the economy has been putting out mixed signals for the past 10 years. Stocks and housing prices going down will hurt those at retirement age trying to cash out, while helping the young who are trying to buy stocks for retirement or buy a house instead of renting. There's often a strange balance like that.

I like to know more about these things and to read about it, I just don't like these types of articles that have nothing to back up the ideas they're putting out, and seemingly pandering to people's obsession with celebrities by mentioning fashion models in a financial article, instead of providing me with some sort of meaningful information.

Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 10:42 am
by snarkout
Wally Balljacker wrote:The economy might be booming for some people, i.e, the people who essentially run society, the ruling class, but for the majority, it's been getting worse for the past 25 years. Wages are going down, hours are going up, and the rich are getting richer, while the poor are getting poorer. I can speak from experience.
Care to back any of this rhetoric up with anything solid?

Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 1:01 pm
by Brian
To steal a line from Thomas Jefferson, I find that the harder I work, the more my luck seems to improve. I have amended that to working smarter and not necessarily harder.

I am a strong proponent of Adam Smith's invisible hand theory. To sum it up, if people manage their personal economy better, society's economy will be better too.

Now for a Brian original; a quote my family and I live by:

"it's not what you make, it's what you don't spend."

When people complain about how bad things are, they often forget about the car payment, plasma TV, eating out often (and that $3 cup of coffee at Starbuck's), designer clothes, and a myriad of other unnecessary expenses. If people have the time and money to wait in line for something as unnecessary as a Wii, PS3, or iPhone, things can't be that bad. In some countries, people wait in line, en masse, for food. Here, we wait in line to give some big company a few hundred dollars. Ironically, that may reflect a good economy but it also reflects a society whose priorities are marred with decadence, entitlement, and emphasis not on beliefs or values but rather the same greed and materialism that many people accuse big companies of.

One of the main political parties in this country has been bleating on for years how we are entitled to anything and everything. It's not fair if someone can't afford a $45K car or $400K house. So, people take the bait, live beyond their means and end up putting the burden not on the wealthy but the responsible people who manage their affairs wisely.

Combined, my wife and I make less than many families we know. Yet, we will have our mortgage paid before our daughter graduates high school, we have no CC debt, and the returns on our investments are going strong enough that I don't want to divulge it in a public forum. This isn't happenstance, it's living smart and managing our own personal economy wisely. We are not wealthy but we focus on not being poor as opposed to trying to be, or appear, wealthy.