Ballmer paper prediction

[allix]

What is your outlook for the future of media?

In the next 10 years, the whole world of media, communications and advertising are going to be turned upside down -- my opinion.

Here are the premises I have. Number one, there will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.

0 years?

Yeah. If it's 14 or if it's 8, it's immaterial to my fundamental point. . . . If we want TV to be more interactive, you'll deliver it over an IP network. I mean, it's sort of funny today. My son will stay up all night basically playing Xbox Live with friends that are in various parts of the world, and yet I can't sit there in front of the TV and have the same kind of a social interaction around my favorite basketball game or golf match. It's just because one of these things is delivered over an IP network and the other is not. . . .
Also in the world of 10 years from now, there are going to be far more producers of content than exist today. We've already started to see that certainly in the online world, but we've just scratched the surface. . . . I always take my favorite case: I grew up in Detroit. I went to a place called Detroit Country Day School. They've got a great basketball team. Why can't I sit in front of my television and watch the Country Day basketball game when I know darn well it's being video-recorded at all times? It's there. It's just not easy to navigate to.

I personally think we are going have newspapers and magazines for over 20 years , they is something about the feel and smell of paper that will not make it disappear. Also wifi is not everywhere and that means in the remote parts of a country and a decent colour ebook reader as well. The ebook reader can be overcome in time , so could wifi actually, but i just feel its not going happen , maybe i am a little bit of luddite .

what do you guys think?

[dann]

I think Ballmer is pretty much on the money here. I think print material is on the way out for stuff like newspapers and magazines. I've pretty much stopped buying Linux magazines. Why shell out the cabbage for stuff I find online anyway. The news is always outdated. Don't get me wrong, I think the quality is there, but as finances get tighter and tighter it just isn't feasible.

The industry I am currently working in has seen a tremendous drop in print media; online is where the future is. I'd be surprised if their print media lasts another 5 years.

I suspect newspapers will see the same thing.

Face it, it's just not economically nor environmentally feasible to continue with print media. With the cost of oil rising everyday, eventually the cost of this media is going to far exceed what consumers are going to be willing to pay for. The many-to-many system will be replaced by the one-to-many. It just makes more sense.

Furthermore, online media provides much more interactive capabilities. It's an active media as opposed to newspapers which are passive.

[snarkout]

I think there will have to be a major evolution in data transport. Right now P2P is killing the intArn3ts.

[allix]

You made some excellent points Dann , which i missed.. I certainly do like the interactions of forums and the ability to just add a comment to a blog,article and see it they instantly. Most if not all magazines of any large size just cannot print everyone's comment in the following issue of that said magazine so the readers miss out on the readerships possible views.

You did not comment on books, do you think we see book shops disappearing? what about religions, will Pat be brining an ebook reader to church on Sundays I joke but religious books represent a substantial amount of books printed today.

[dann]

Books are a tough call, I think, because there is a more permanence with books compared to other forms of media. Books go easily on shelves. Unlike magazines and newspapers (unless you are a collector) books are not usually discarded after use. They also have a bigger after market value. For instance, I'm currently reading Genesis - As It Is Written. I would not throw that book away when finished. There would be a market for me to sell it or I could donate it to a book drive. Not so with most magazines and newspapers.

eReaders may be the way of the future, though. I do think there will be some market for books. It could be they would be relegated to the collector as vinyl has been to music aficionados.

I'm torn between eReaders and books. It's nice to be able to have my collection of books with me where ever I go; but I would miss out on the feel of a book. It's hard to say. Maybe I will have to try reading something like Paradise Lost in my eeePC and see how I like it.

[LinuxMint-4]

Maybe some of those ancient laptops could be converted to E-Readers.
A new market for really old laptops?

[Vogateer]

This is pure hyperbole. People have been predicting the end of paper for ages, and we're in a paper glut right now. If anything computers have just made it far easier to use more paper.

Much as I love computers, I still use a HipsterPDA paper based task manager, subscribe to magazines, and check out books from the library. Most of my wish list for my birthday is made up of books. I do read an awful lot of news on the Internet, but I would subscribe to a newspaper, too, if I thought the reporting was trustworthy or otherwise worth a damn.

So I imagine newspapers will continue to decline, but you just can't beat a book. The feel, the ability to choose different formats and layouts, the typography, the life span, the ability to share it with friends, and just a plain force of habit will keep books around for ages.

[karst]

I would say we'll still have physical mass media in 20 years or so(IMO). maybe after the folks born prior to say 1980 die off it would go away, but even then they'd have to make some improvements todigital news and reference data. Even using a Nintendo DS or something similar I'd be loath to take it to work to catch up on news during lunch or use it in the bath or poolside. If I leave a newspaper on the lounge chair while in the pool there's slim chance it will be stolen and even if it were I'd only be out $1.50. If I drop the paper in the tub, again I'm not too worried. Not sure I'd want to risk dropping a DS or An EEEPC in the tub.

There will likely be fewer papers. The ones that don't add any real value or in depth analysis will likely die out(buh bye USA today), But even if The Financial Times Website were the equal of the physical paper in convenience and coverage(and it is pretty close) I'd still buy it for the reasons above. same with some of the other better papers I'm sure. I could easily live without magazines though.

Ballmer's opinion on Mass media is about as useful as Your favourite Baseball player's or super model's opinion on economics. If Ballmer is talking about running a tech company I might listen to him. But media? I think he's talking outside of his experience and his companies expertise.

Books are much the same. Losing a paper back sets me back maybe $6 or so. no great deal. and With a book you can use it if you go hiking or even if civilisation collapses. Not that it would happen, but if you're the last person on earth so to speak you only need to know how to read to use a book. to use a computer or mobile device you need to know how to create electricity and operate the electronic device.