Windows 7: The Linux killer

[LinuxMint-4]

Windows 7: The Linux killer
by Preston Gralla

http://www.itworld.com/windows/59657/wi ... nux-killer

December 22, 2008, 02:31 PM — Computerworld —

Microsoft has long been worried about Linux competition in the server market. When it came to ordinary PCs and laptops, however, it knew it had little to fear.

But that was then. Now Microsoft may fear Linux on the desktop as much as it does the Mac. It's finally taking Linux seriously as a desktop operating system, and it has designed Windows 7 to kill it.

Let me explain.

The threat to Windows comes entirely from "netbooks" -- lightweight, inexpensive laptops that typically use Intel 's low-powered Atom processor and don't come with substantial amounts of RAM or powerful graphics processors. They're designed mainly for browsing the Web, handling e-mail, writing memos, and taking care of simple word-processing or spreadsheet chores.

Netbooks will account for about a third of all PC growth this year, according to Citigroup . Shipments will rise at an annual average rate of 60% to reach 29 million netbooks in 2010, compared with 18% growth for standard notebooks, says a September BNP Paribas report.

Clearly, the future is in netbooks. And that has Microsoft worried. Netbooks can't handle Vista's hardware demands, so XP is the only Microsoft operating system that runs on them. But Linux is ideally suited for lower-powered netbooks.

The result? Acer and Asustek, which account for 90% of the netbook market, are using Linux on about 30% of their low-cost notebooks, according to Bloomberg. Making matters worse, if Linux is used on those netbooks, it means that Microsoft Office isn't. So Microsoft takes a double hit every time someone buys a Linux netbook.

Microsoft isn't just worried about ceding 30% of the netbook market to Linux. It's also worried that if people get used to running Linux on netbooks, they'll consider buying Linux on desktop PCs as well. Here's what Dickie Chang, an analyst at IDC in Taipei, told Bloomberg: "It's a real threat to Microsoft. It gives users a chance to see and try something new, showing them there is an alternative."

Microsoft, though, has a not-so-secret weapon against Linux: Windows 7. Its new operating system, slated to be introduced sometime next year, is designed to work fine on netbooks. In fact, at Microsoft's recent Professional Developers Conference, where the pre-beta of Windows 7 was unveiled, Windows Senior Vice President Steve Sinofsky showed off Windows 7 on his Lenovo S10 and said it used less than half of the netbook's 1GB of RAM.

When Windows 7 ships, expect a massive marketing blitz pushing it on netbooks with special deals, and netbook hardware taking advantage of Windows 7 capabilities, including touch screens.

In fact, the blitz has already begun. Asus CEO Jerry Shen announced that he plans to release versions of the Eee PC powered by Windows 7 in mid-2009, including a touch-screen version.

This is anything but a level playing field. Because no company owns Linux, there won't be a competing marketing push for Linux netbooks. Microsoft has shown before how tough it can be on competitors -- remember Lotus 1-2-3, WordPerfect and Harvard Graphics? So expect Linux netbook sales to fall when Windows 7 ships.

Despite Microsoft's killer instincts, I don't think Linux netbook sales will stop dead. There will always be a niche for them. But within a year of the Windows 7 launch, Linux market share will drop. The high point for Linux netbook sales will be from now until the launch of Windows 7. After that will come the inevitable decline.

Preston Gralla is a contributing editor for Computerworld.com and the author of more than 35 books, including How the Internet Works (Que, 2006).

[eddie]

http://hotbutteredit.com/windows/mac-or ... either/104

[greggh]

Let me explain.

The threat to Windows comes entirely from "netbooks"

This is only the latest, newest, most immediate threat. Netbooks are just short term noise along the way if you take a long term view. GNU/Linux will continue to increase in usage on the desktop, and eventually displace Windows, for many reasons, freedom being one of them.

[dann]

Here is the problem with either Apple or Microsoft when compared to Linux: Both are very dependent on marketing to pull ahead. Yet here we have Linux with almost 0 marketing behind it gaining head way. Sure, I can see where a number of people posit that if we only had marketing behind Linux it would skyrocket; and that may be true. But look how far we have come just sticking with the grass roots.

Windows 7 may steal some market share, who knows. I doubt it will last forever. I can see and ebb and flow here but now that the beast is out, it's gonna be real hard to put it back in the cage.

[MattKingUSA]

"The minimum requirements for running Windows 7 are a PC with a 1 Ghz processor, 1GB of RAM, 16 GB of disk space, 128MB of video memory and support for DX9 graphics."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7817190.stm

[eddie]

It has already been alleged in the media that windoze seven has issues. Unless Microsoft is going to always give windows 7 away for free, I see no need to spend 100 or more dollars per machine or more for unproven software, when linux is at this point no initial cost to me. Besides, I have not yet found a mswindows product that ran comfortably on it's low end specs. After watching the video, I wonder when Dell is going to announce the dropping of it's linux line? Unless you go to some of the on-line resale sites, it will be very hard to get video cards for older machines as pci-e replaces pci. It is a fallacy that windows even will work on even be used older machines. Only one of the lower end above 1g pc machines I have has a video card with 128 meg. Even ram itself is very hard to find for older machines. I have only 512m in my desktop that I use the most. I see no need in upgrading memory especially now that older memory is selling for a premium off the shelf. In essence, you will have to get a new machine to run mswindows 7. I just as well stay with my Xwindows machines. I am beginning to like icewm more and more.

[MattKingUSA]

Yeah, agree, this is hardly a Linux killer. It's far from it. The ram requirements nullify the proc requirments in my opinion. If it were 1ghz proc with 16 -32 mb ram than maybe. But, not even close. But, as far as win7 being crap it isn't finished yet. They'll more than likely make it more crap as it gets closer to completion. I foresee the sys specs getting a lot more unreasonable. They're such goons at MS.

[eddie]

My brother has msdn, but Has not had a chance to look and see if he has his new desk set yet. I would like to see how w7 runs without a gui or with a replacement gui. I will be watching ms tonight to see how quick I can dl the w7 test the piece of garbage out.

[Patrick]

Yet another idiotic "Windows 7: Linux killer" article:
http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/37086

His arguments:
- windows7 has a terminal shell
- there are open source apps available for windows
- less resource hungry than Vista

I get the impression this current wave of articles is coming from a M$ FUD playbook. They're just too similar to brush off as mere coincidence. So much for the new kindler/gentler "open source friendly" Microsoft?

[Patrick]

And Joe Zonker has a comeback piece regarding this trend:
http://blogs.zdnet.com/community/?p=151

[Claudio]

Yet another idiotic "Windows 7: Linux killer" article:
http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/37086

His arguments:
- windows7 has a terminal shell
- there are open source apps available for windows
- less resource hungry than Vista

I get the impression this current wave of articles is coming from a M$ FUD playbook. They're just too similar to brush off as mere coincidence. So much for the new kindler/gentler "open source friendly" Microsoft?

Yeah, I saw nothing in that blog entry that made Windows 7 look like a "GNU/Linux killer." Just more hype from the Microsofties out there. There's no way they can kill something that's community-supported and free in every aspect of the word.

[eddie]

Microsoft decided to reopen the downloads.